Nigeria’s Political Crucible: A Swell of Opposition Challenges APC’s Dominance Ahead of 2027

By Anthony Chinecherem

I. Introduction: The Shifting Political Landscape

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy, is currently experiencing a significant political realignment and an intensified surge in opposition activities directed at the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) government. This dynamic period, unfolding ahead of the pivotal 2027 general elections, is marked by widespread public discontent. Economic hardship and persistent security challenges are proving to be powerful catalysts, galvanizing various opposition forces across the country.

Traditionally characterized by fragmentation, Nigeria’s opposition is now actively pursuing greater unity, aiming to present a more cohesive front against the APC’s entrenched power. This drive for cohesion manifests in the formation of new political alliances and increased activism from civil society organizations and labor unions. While the ruling party acknowledges certain public difficulties, it maintains a confident stance regarding its policies, often dismissing the opposition’s efforts as primarily politically motivated.

II. The Emergence of United Opposition Fronts

A notable development in Nigeria’s political arena is the formation of a new political force, frequently referenced as the All Democratic Alliance (ADA) or, more accurately, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition. This alliance represents a concerted effort to unify disparate opposition elements, with the explicit aim of challenging the ruling APC’s dominance in the lead-up to the 2027 elections. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has been formally adopted as the official platform for this burgeoning coalition.  

This new alliance is spearheaded by a collection of prominent opposition figures, many of whom were rivals in previous electoral cycles. Among them are former presidential candidates Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Abubakar Atiku of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who have now joined forces. The coalition also includes other influential personalities such as former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, former Minister of Transportation Rotimi Amaechi, and former Senate President David Mark.   

The stated objectives of this coalition are clear: to confront what they describe as Nigeria’s worsening economic conditions, escalating insecurity, and a perceived disregard for democratic values under the current Tinubu administration. Yunusa Tanko, a member of the coalition, articulated this purpose directly, stating, “We are fighting for the soul of the country… there’s hunger in the land, rising insecurity, and clear disdain for democratic values”. Their overarching goal is to foster national unity and ultimately present a single, formidable opposition presidential candidate for the 2027 polls.   

The drive for this unity is significantly influenced by the prevailing national challenges. The severe economic hardship and pervasive insecurity act as a powerful external force, compelling previously rival political factions, such as those led by Atiku and Obi, to set aside their differences and coalesce. This suggests that the depth of public suffering serves as a primary catalyst for political cohesion among the opposition, rather than a purely ideological alignment. The effectiveness of this coalition may therefore depend less on traditional political maneuvering and more on the continued deterioration or improvement of these fundamental national issues.

Political coalitions are not a novel phenomenon in Nigeria’s democratic history. The ruling APC itself emerged in 2013 from a merger of three major opposition parties—the Action Congress of Nigeria, the Congress for Progressive Change, and the All Nigeria Peoples Party—along with a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance. This powerful coalition successfully unseated the then-incumbent Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2015 presidential election, marking a historic moment as the first time an opposition party achieved a peaceful transfer of power in Nigeria. This historical precedent serves as both a blueprint and an inspiration for the current opposition’s efforts. However, while the 2015 success offers a roadmap, the current coalition cannot simply replicate it. The political dynamics have shifted considerably, with observers noting that the situation is “significantly different now”. The APC, having experienced both opposition and governance, now employs its own strategies to absorb opposition figures, making the current unity a more complex and potentially fragile endeavor than the historical parallel might suggest.   

To bolster its position as a viable alternative, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is undertaking significant internal reforms. These include amending its constitution to eliminate the two-year membership requirement for individuals seeking to run for office, a move designed to attract dynamic leaders irrespective of their past political affiliations. The ADC champions a vision of “transformation and inclusive governance,” promoting national unity through initiatives such as the “National Symbolic Handshake”. Its stated mission is to reengineer a political party system that is free from the influence of “wheeler-dealer political elites, money-bags and ‘god-fathers'” by emphasizing transparency, accountability, inclusion, and diversity. The party also articulates a broader ambition to usher in a “super power economy” and establish “just and resilient institutions”.   

III. The Core Grievances Fueling Dissent

Economic Hardship

The economic policies implemented by President Bola Tinubu’s administration since May 2023 have become a primary source of public discontent. The government’s sweeping reforms, most notably the abrupt removal of fuel subsidies and the flotation of the naira, were intended to stabilize the economy and attract foreign investment. However, the immediate impact has been a severe economic fallout.   

These reforms have triggered soaring inflation, which reached 34% in mid-2025 and hovered between 32-35% in August 2024. This has led to a profound cost-of-living crisis and widespread hunger across the nation. Many Nigerians now struggle to afford basic necessities like food and fuel, while job losses are mounting as multinational companies exit the country and smaller firms collapse. A World Bank report further highlighted an increase in acute food shortages.   

Public faith in governance has plummeted to an all-time low. A 2025 Citizens Perception Survey conducted by the Africa Polling Institute revealed a distressing social cohesion index of 46.8%, falling below the acceptable 50% benchmark. The survey indicated that a staggering 83% of Nigerians expressed little to no trust in President Tinubu’s government. This sentiment is widely echoed by opposition figures, with one stating, “People can’t afford food, fuel, or school fees. We voted for change in 2023, but this is not what we expected”.   

The current situation highlights a paradox where economic reforms, lauded by investors and rating agencies, are simultaneously causing significant hardship for the average Nigerian. The government’s defense of these measures as “tough but necessary” for long-term gains is met with the lived reality of declining purchasing power and rising costs. This disparity fuels the opposition’s narrative and intensifies public anger. The government faces a critical challenge in bridging the gap between its long-term economic vision and the immediate suffering of its citizens. Without tangible relief, public trust will continue to erode, making the populace increasingly receptive to opposition narratives, regardless of international commendation for the reforms.   

The broad impact of these economic criticisms, affecting nearly all segments of society, creates a common grievance that transcends traditional ethnic, religious, or regional divides. This widespread suffering acts as a powerful unifying force, enabling diverse opposition elements, from prominent political figures to labor unions and civil society groups, to find common ground. As one opposition figure noted, “No amount of propaganda can cover hunger. No PR can spin poverty”. This suggests that the economic crisis provides a potent, universal rallying cry for the opposition, potentially allowing them to build a broader and more resilient coalition than might otherwise be possible in Nigeria’s often fragmented political landscape. This makes the economic performance of the APC a primary vulnerability.   

Table 1: Key Economic Indicators & Public Trust (2023-2025)

This table quantifies the severity of the economic crisis and the depth of public dissatisfaction, moving beyond anecdotal evidence to provide empirical support for claims of worsening economic conditions and declining trust. The low social cohesion index alongside high distrust across all government branches visually demonstrates a systemic problem, reinforcing the notion of an erosion of institutional trust.

Pervasive Insecurity

Nigeria continues to grapple with escalating security challenges, which further fuel public discontent. The country faces persistent banditry in the North-west, the enduring Boko Haram insurgency in the North-east, and rising separatist tensions in the South-east. A 2025 report estimated that over 10,000 Nigerians have been killed in violent incidents since President Tinubu assumed office. This widespread insecurity significantly contributes to public distress and undermines the overall governance framework.   

The opposition has capitalized on these security failures, with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar accusing the government of “abandoning Nigerians to hunger and violence”. Critics argue that military operations have proven ineffective in quelling the violence, and reports of human rights abuses by security forces are frequent. The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has also condemned the government’s perceived failure to protect lives and property, citing staggering losses comparable to nations at war.   

A critical dynamic here is that security was a cornerstone of the APC’s 2015 campaign. The current high levels of insecurity directly contradict a key promise upon which the APC initially gained power. This creates a powerful narrative for the opposition, allowing them to highlight a perceived betrayal of public trust. The APC’s inability to significantly improve security, despite it being a core pledge, weakens its legitimacy and provides the opposition with a potent and emotionally resonant point of attack, potentially leading to widespread voter disillusionment and shifts in political allegiance by 2027.   

Governance and Democratic Concerns

Beyond economic and security issues, concerns about governance and democratic integrity are prominent. President Tinubu’s administration has faced accusations from the opposition of attempting to foster a one-party state by leveraging state mechanisms to encourage high-profile politicians to defect to the ruling APC. While President Tinubu has denied such intentions, stating that a “one-party system is not suitable for democracy” and that individuals are free to leave a “sinking ship” , the trend of increasing defections remains a visible and concerning development for critics.   

Public trust in key democratic institutions, specifically the National Assembly and the judiciary, is alarmingly low. A 2025 survey indicated that 82% of Nigerians expressed distrust in the National Assembly, and 79% expressed low trust in the judiciary. The legislature is frequently characterized as a “rubber stamp” of the executive, failing to provide adequate checks and balances. The judiciary, in turn, faces severe criticism for what is described as a “mockery of the justice system,” citing issues such as “forum shopping, frivolous adjournments, and conflicting judgments”. This widespread institutional distrust across all branches of government signals a systemic crisis of confidence, rather than mere dissatisfaction with specific policies. When citizens lose faith in the integrity and impartiality of core government institutions, it can lead to increased civic disengagement, radicalization, or a greater willingness to support non-traditional political movements. The opposition’s challenge thus extends beyond winning elections; it encompasses the daunting task of restoring public faith in the democratic system itself.   

Amidst severe economic hardship, there are also significant concerns about perceived government extravagance. Examples cited include the purchase of a $150 million aircraft for the Presidential Air Fleet and a N21 billion new residence for the Vice-President. Citizens also openly question the whereabouts of funds from the removed fuel subsidy. The perception of a move towards a one-party state, fueled by strategic defections, serves as a potent narrative for the opposition. This narrative, regardless of its factual basis, can effectively galvanize opposition and invite international scrutiny, framing the 2027 election not merely as a contest between political parties but as a critical battle for the preservation of multi-party democracy in Nigeria.   

IV. Public Protests and Civil Society Mobilization

The opposition to the APC government is not confined to political parties; it is also strongly manifested through major protest movements and the active engagement of civil society organizations.

Analysis of Major Protest Movements

The abrupt removal of fuel subsidies by President Tinubu on his inauguration day, May 29, 2023, immediately led to a doubling of petrol prices and a significant increase in the cost of other commodities. This decision triggered widespread public anger and prompted a series of protests and strikes led by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC). In September 2023, the NLC initiated a two-day “warning strike,” threatening a “total and indefinite shutdown” if their demands for improved welfare and increased wages were not met. Further escalation occurred in June 2024, when a general strike resulted in the complete shutdown of the national grid, airports, banks, hospitals, and schools. The unions demanded a higher minimum wage and the reversal of electricity tariff hikes. While they initially sought a monthly minimum wage of N494,000, negotiations eventually led to an agreement of N70,000, alongside government pledges for investment in transportation and renewable energy. The NLC continues to issue warnings of nationwide protests over escalating insecurity, poverty, and the high cost of living.   

Beyond specific economic policies, broader “EndBadGovernance” protests have emerged, reflecting deep-seated discontent with corruption, economic mismanagement, and inadequate public services. These demonstrations, such as those in August 2024, articulate demands for fundamental systemic reforms, including reducing business regulations, overhauling the judicial system, and implementing electoral reforms to restore public trust and accountability.   

Protests have also manifested at the local level, particularly concerning alleged political imposition and a perceived lack of internal democracy in the selection of candidates for local government elections. Groups like the United Action for Democracy have vocally condemned election processes as a “blatant abuse of citizens’ rights,” calling for the suspension of electoral commission chairmen accused of compromising integrity.   

The Role of Civil Society Organizations

Civil society organizations play a crucial role in articulating and amplifying opposition to government policies. The Centre for Information Technology and Development (CITAD), a member of the Association for Progressive Communications (APC) network, notably condemned the 2021 suspension of Twitter services in Nigeria as “undemocratic and unacceptable,” actively advocating for freedom of expression and access to information. More recently, Professor Pat Utomi, Chairman of “The Big Tent,” a shadow government initiative, has been a vocal critic of Nigeria’s deepening poverty, rising insecurity, and hunger. His initiative aims to offer comprehensive policy alternatives to the current administration. Utomi emphasizes that his group seeks to “enrich governance through constructive alternative views” and ensure “policy accountability”.   

The landscape of opposition in Nigeria is multi-layered, encompassing both formal political coalitions and powerful informal movements. The ability of labor unions like the NLC to orchestrate strikes that shut down critical infrastructure demonstrates a significant capacity for disruption. Concurrently, civil society groups articulate broader systemic critiques and propose policy alternatives. This indicates that the opposition to the APC is not monolithic but rather a complex ecosystem of actors employing diverse strategies. The government, therefore, faces pressure from multiple fronts, requiring a multifaceted response that addresses both political challenges and the underlying socio-economic grievances that fuel broader discontent.   

A concerning development within this context is the emergence of what can be described as counter-opposition tactics. Reports indicate that “since Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari took office in 2015, over 300 fake pro-government NGOs have been set up by individuals connected to the ruling All Progressives Congress”. These groups, masquerading as civil society organizations, praise government leaders while actively attacking and, at times, inciting violence against legitimate NGOs. This reveals a deliberate and sophisticated strategy by the ruling party to dilute, discredit, and counter genuine civil society opposition, effectively engaging in a form of information warfare or narrative control. This tactic complicates the landscape for authentic civil society advocacy, making it more challenging for the public and international observers to distinguish between genuine grassroots movements and state-sponsored narratives. It also risks undermining public trust in civil society itself and potentially suppressing dissent by creating a hostile environment for independent voices.   

V. The Ruling Party’s Defense and Counter-Narratives

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has largely adopted a dismissive stance towards the emerging opposition coalitions. Party spokesperson Akeem Akintayo delivered a “scathing assessment,” characterizing the new political alliance as “hungry and desperate” maneuvering for power. Similarly, Senator Yemi Adaramodu, the Senate’s spokesperson, asserted that the APC is “not worried” by the ADC coalition, describing their actions as “comical” and referring to some opposition leaders as “retired politicians without electoral value”.   

President Bola Tinubu has consistently defended his administration’s economic reforms, acknowledging them as “tough decisions” but emphasizing their necessity for long-term national gains. He has stressed that the government “couldn’t just afford to spend the future of our children and unborn babies”. The President has highlighted the elimination of “arbitrage-driven multiple foreign exchanges” and ongoing “far-reaching tax reforms” as key achievements that are attracting foreign direct investments, which are expected to create jobs and ultimately improve living standards for Nigerians.   

The APC expresses confidence in its accomplishments and its prospects for the 2027 elections. President Tinubu has stated satisfaction with the progress made, anticipating further support, remarking, “I am happy with what we have accomplished and expecting more people to come; that’s the game”. The APC National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, has commended Nigerians for “enduring the transient difficulties” and pointed to “evident signs of a steadily rebounding economy”. Morka also cited improvements in the minimum wage, access to student loans, and better healthcare as achievements of the administration. Allies of President Tinubu confidently predict that the APC will “clinch that seat in 2027 by the special grace of God”.   

A significant part of the APC’s counter-narrative involves attributing current national challenges, particularly insecurity, to the legacies of previous administrations. The party frequently asserts that the “seeds of insecurity” were sown by the former Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) administration, accusing them of handling the Boko Haram insurgency “in an inept and incompetent manner”. This narrative aims to deflect blame from the current government and reframe the APC as the party actively working to “contain” inherited problems.   

The APC’s defense centers on a “tough but necessary reforms” narrative for long-term gain, framing current hardships as “transient difficulties”. Conversely, the opposition, particularly through figures like Phrank Shaibu, argues that the APC promised “Renewed Hope” but has instead delivered “Renewed Hardship”. This represents a direct clash of narratives over the interpretation of the economic situation, with the APC attempting to manage expectations and justify short-term pain, while the opposition weaponizes that pain as evidence of governmental failure. The 2027 election campaign will likely be dominated by this battle of narratives, with the APC needing to demonstrate tangible improvements to counter the lived experience of hardship. If the “transient difficulties” persist, the “broken promises” narrative will gain significant traction, making it harder for the APC to convince the electorate.   

President Tinubu’s characterization of the opposition as “political IDPs” (Internally Displaced Persons) is a dismissive term intended to imply their lack of a political home or relevance. However, this rhetoric has been countered by the opposition, with Phrank Shaibu asserting that “They are political refugees only in form, not in influence. If anything, they have gained strength in exile” and that “hashtags grow into hurricanes”. This suggests that the APC’s dismissive approach, while designed to demoralize, could inadvertently galvanize the opposition and their supporters by fostering a sense of injustice and determination. Underestimating and publicly ridiculing the opposition, particularly when they are uniting over widespread public grievances, risks alienating a significant portion of the electorate and strengthening the resolve of the opposition, potentially backfiring by making them appear more resilient and principled in the face of perceived arrogance from the ruling party.   

Table 2: Key Criticisms vs. APC’s Responses

This table provides a direct comparison of the core criticisms from the opposition and public with the APC’s official counter-arguments and defenses. It highlights where narratives diverge and offers a structured overview of the political battlegrounds, serving as a foundation for understanding the complexities of the opposition landscape.

VI. Outlook: The Road to 2027 and Beyond

The newly formed ADC/ADA coalition faces a formidable task in maintaining unity among its diverse political heavyweights, many of whom have been past rivals. Political observers note that the current dynamics are “significantly different” from the successful 2015 coalition that brought the APC to power. The coalition’s ability to overcome historical infighting, ensure internal cohesion, and develop a clear, actionable policy agenda that extends beyond general criticisms will be crucial for its long-term viability. The optimism within the coalition is largely fueled by the perceived struggles of the APC, particularly the ongoing economic hardship. Their primary opportunity lies in effectively capitalizing on widespread public discontent and presenting a credible, unified alternative vision that genuinely resonates with the electorate’s immediate concerns. The ADC’s efforts to reform its internal structure and emphasize inclusivity represent strategic steps towards building a more formidable front.  

The ruling APC, despite its public dismissal of the opposition, is actively strategizing for the 2027 elections. Their approach includes attracting defections from opposition ranks, which they frame as a natural part of the political game. The party will continue to defend its economic reforms as necessary for long-term stability and attribute current challenges to the legacies of past administrations. The APC aims to consolidate its base by highlighting perceived achievements and ensuring internal party cohesion. However, the deepening public distrust and the severity of the economic and security crises pose significant hurdles that cannot be simply dismissed or attributed solely to historical factors.   

The trajectory of Nigeria’s economy and security situation will be paramount in shaping the country’s political future. Continued hardship and insecurity could further galvanize the opposition and erode the APC’s support, potentially transforming the 2027 elections into a direct referendum on the Tinubu administration’s performance. The overwhelming focus of both opposition criticism and public sentiment on economic hardship indicates that the economy is not just an issue, but the central issue dominating the political discourse. The assertion by Phrank Shaibu that “Hunger, economic hardship will defeat APC in 2027” explicitly frames the upcoming election as a direct consequence of economic conditions. This places immense pressure on the APC to demonstrate tangible economic relief, and conversely, offers the opposition a powerful and relatable platform.   

Conversely, the APC’s capacity to deliver tangible improvements in living conditions and security, and to effectively communicate its long-term vision, will determine its ability to retain power. While the ADC/ADA represents a significant effort at opposition unity, the political landscape still reveals underlying fragmentation. Even the APC, despite its successful formation as a coalition, faced internal infighting and defections. The current ADC coalition itself is reportedly experiencing “internal tensions” and accusations of “selling out” from within its ranks. This suggests that while external pressures, such as economic hardship, can compel temporary alliances, the deep-seated tendencies towards fragmentation and personal ambition remain a persistent challenge in Nigerian politics. The ultimate success of the opposition in 2027 will therefore depend not only on forming a coalition but on its ability to sustain internal cohesion, manage conflicting ambitions, and present a truly unified front over the long term. This inherent fragility of coalitions could be exploited by the ruling party. The complex interplay between formal political maneuvering, civil society activism, and evolving public sentiment will ultimately define Nigeria’s political landscape in the years leading up to and beyond 2027.   

VII. Conclusions

The recent swell of opposition against Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) government is a multifaceted phenomenon, driven primarily by profound public discontent over economic hardship, pervasive insecurity, and concerns regarding governance. The emergence of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition, uniting former rivals like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, represents a significant attempt to consolidate disparate opposition forces and leverage this widespread dissatisfaction ahead of the 2027 general elections. This effort draws inspiration from the APC’s own successful coalition formation in 2015, yet it faces the enduring challenge of maintaining cohesion in a political landscape historically prone to fragmentation.

The severe economic fallout from President Tinubu’s reforms, characterized by soaring inflation, a cost-of-living crisis, and job losses, has significantly eroded public trust across all branches of government. This economic distress serves as a powerful unifying force for the opposition, providing a universal rallying cry that transcends traditional divides. Similarly, the government’s perceived failure to address escalating insecurity, a key promise from the APC’s initial campaign, further weakens its legitimacy and provides the opposition with a potent point of attack. Concerns about democratic integrity, including allegations of a move towards a one-party state through defections and criticisms of legislative and judicial oversight, contribute to a systemic crisis of public confidence.

The opposition landscape is further enriched by the active role of labor unions, such as the NLC, through disruptive strikes, and civil society organizations, which offer critical analyses and policy alternatives. However, the effectiveness of genuine civil society efforts is complicated by the reported proliferation of pro-government NGOs designed to counter and discredit independent voices.

The APC’s response has been to dismiss the opposition as politically motivated and to defend its reforms as tough but necessary for long-term national gains, while attributing current challenges to past administrations. This creates a critical narrative battle, where the government’s claims of a rebounding economy clash with the lived reality of hardship for many Nigerians. The outcome of the 2027 elections will likely serve as a direct referendum on the government’s ability to deliver tangible improvements in economic well-being and security. The capacity of the opposition to sustain its newfound unity and present a compelling, actionable vision will be pivotal in determining whether Nigeria’s political future sees a continuation of the status quo or a significant shift in power.